From Forecasts To Futures: How Ugandan Communities Are Turning Early Warnings Into Everyday Action

The River and the Road Ahead

When the river rises in Pakwach, Uganda, it brings more than water. It brings back the memory of past floods, the homes lost, the fields drowned, and the quiet despair that follows when the ground itself seems to turn against you.

Soon, that same river will matter in a new way: as a generator of livelihoods and a barometre of local conditions.

“We will learn to live with it,” says a local leader in Pakwach District. “This time, we will listen to the forecast – and act before the flood.”

Across Uganda, communities are redefining how they read the skies, prepare for droughts, and face floods before they arrive.

Choosing Where to Begin

In April 2024, under Water at the Heart of Climate Action (WHCA), government agencies, humanitarian partners, and technical experts met to decide where this new chapter would start – selecting focus areas based not just on risk, but also community readiness.

The Uganda Red Cross Society identified the most vulnerable and underserved communities, informed by data from the National Vulnerability and Risk Atlas of Uganda produced by the Office of the Prime Minister, and layered with catchment management plans from the Ministry of Water and Environment.

“We wanted to be precise,” explains a Uganda Red Cross Society disaster risk manager. “Not just where the threat is most severe, but where communities are ready to work with us – where early warning can become early action.”

Uganda’s entire territory lies within the Nile Basin, where floods and droughts intertwine. Two districts are disproportionately exposed to climate hazards: Kamuli, where floods regularly inundate low-lying areas, and Pakwach, where prolonged dry spells and drought test communities’ endurance.

Listening Before Acting

Before deciding what to build or where to train, WHCA began by listening. Over several weeks, partners assessed vulnerabilities and capacities across both districts, through 32 community meetings gathering 3,258 participants – farmers, fisherfolks, elders, youths, and local leaders.

“People know their risks better than any map,” says a Uganda Red Cross Society facilitator. “We wanted to learn from them first.”

In Kamuli, families living near wetlands and riverbanks described how houses are submerged, latrines collapse, and crops are washed away each rainy season. They spoke of how people with disabilities struggle to relocate, and how elderly residents often refuse to leave their flooded homes.

In Pakwach, the crisis looks different. Prolonged dry spells shrink the river channels that sustain the district’s fishing communities, leaving daily catches uncertain. With water sources receding, women walk longer distances and children under five suffer when both crops and fish supplies drop.

These lived realities are shaping the WHCA roadmap, ensuring that future early warning systems will not only deliver messages but reach those who need them most and drive them to respond.

Building the Bridge Between Forecast and Action

WHCA strengthens early warning systems and anticipatory action at the community level.

Local structures – village councils, parish chiefs, village health teams, water user committees, and community-based disaster risk reduction groups – are at the heart of the new system. They are being trained to interpret forecasts, disseminate local alerts, and mobilize families when thresholds are reached.

“The message will not stop at the district office,” says a meteorologist from the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS). “It will reach the woman by the river, the child in school, and the farmer in the field.”

The Uganda Red Cross Society, the DMS and the district disaster management committee coordinate closely, ensuring that forecasts reach even remote villages. But more accurate DMS rainfall forecasts and improved flood models of the Hydrological Services at the MoWE – supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) – are needed. 

“We hope that WHCA will now move closer to the national and local levels”, explains Dr. Benon Zaake, Commissioner and head of hydrological services at the MoWE. “Many local partners and communities recognize their own challenges, but they haven’t yet seen how we can support them, simply because they’re not fully aware of the scope of our work. We need stronger outreach and engagement, and we believe WHCA can really help bridge that gap”. 

The programme also works through trusted messengers – faith leaders, health centres and local radio stations, turning trusted community voices into channels of preparedness.

“When people hear advice from their church or local radio, they act faster,” says a parish chief in Kamuli. “That’s how we build trust in the forecast.”

From Vulnerability Maps to Living Systems

Behind the science of selection lies a larger vision – to transform risk maps into living systems of anticipation and adaptation.

Each chosen community serves as a microcosm of Uganda’s broader climate challenges:

• Kamuli focuses on flood resilience, where riverbank communities learn to build safer, more resilient settlements, protect water sources, and respond to early alerts.
• Pakwach focuses on drought preparedness, teaching farmers how to adapt cropping cycles, conserve water, and build reserves for lean seasons.

Both districts are integrating climate change adaptation measures – from small-scale irrigation to improved soil management.

“Our goal,” explains an official from the Ministry of Water and Environment, “is not only to issue forecasts but to help communities plan their future around them.”

The People Behind the Programme

In each community, the project brings together a constellation of local actors.

Village health teams track climate-sensitive diseases during flood or drought emergencies. Water committees manage boreholes and drainage channels. School teachers include preparedness drills in lessons. And youth volunteers – trained by the Uganda Red Cross Society – use megaphones and mobile phones to disseminate early warnings.

“Early warning will become everyone’s business,” says a Uganda Red Cross Society branch manager. “From the radio announcer to the church elder – everyone has a role.”

Looking Forward: A Culture of Preparedness

WHCA aims to turn early warning from an event into a habit – something communities practice, not just receive. Children learn to read rainfall charts on classroom walls. Farmers check weather updates before planting. Women’s groups keep emergency savings for drought periods.

And when the river begins to rise again in Kamuli, or the sky stays dry over Pakwach, the same families who once waited helplessly already know what to do.

“Next time, we won’t wait for the water to reach our feet,” says a community member. “We will move before it comes.”

Credit: Cheikh Kane, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre